College Football Playoff bracket projection sees Alabama fall out

Ohio State remains the projected Big Ten champion in USA TODAY Sports’ College Football Playoff bracketology despite Saturday’s 32-31 loss at Oregon.

The instant classic between the Buckeyes and Ducks strongly suggests the two teams will meet again to decide the conference's winner in December. Given how tightly the game was played at Autzen Stadium, Ohio State would likely be seen as the favorite in a neutral-site matchup in Indianapolis.

The Ducks continue to be one of the top at-large teams in our projected playoff field. In addition to Ohio State and Oregon, the Big Ten is also projected to have a third playoff team in Penn State. The Nittany Lions are in position to earn an at-large bid even with a loss to the Buckeyes early next month. They don't face another ranked team on their schedule.

One team not in this week’s field is Alabama. It’s been a whirlwind month for the Crimson Tide, who held on to beat Georgia, lost to Vanderbilt and then really struggled to secure a 27-25 win against South Carolina. Based on what we’ve seen in recent weeks, the Tide are far from a sure thing and perhaps headed for multiple losses the rest of the way.

The SEC is a mess. Not in terms of overall quality: The conference remains the best in the Bowl Subdivision, with Texas ranked No. 1 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and another seven teams in the Top 25.

But SEC teams are falling victim to the league’s depth. In addition to Alabama’s struggles, we’ve seen Tennessee lose to Arkansas, Missouri lose to Texas A&M and Mississippi lose twice in a three-game span.

That’s led to a reassessment of the math behind the at-large playoff conversation. The SEC winner will very likely earn the top overall seed in the playoff field, and the runner-up would be locked into one of the top at-large bids.

Ten wins was expected to be the cutoff point for a playoff bid for teams in the Power Four. As things currently stand, it’s unlikely that four or more SEC teams reach that mark during the regular season. If so, the playoff selection committee would have to look beyond overall records to find the teams they believe deserve to play for the national championship.

The Aggies have won five in a row since dropping the opener against Notre Dame, including three wins in the SEC: Florida, Arkansas and Missouri. Beating LSU on Oct. 26 would give A&M a legitimate shot at being 10-1 going into its rivalry game against Texas that's sure to be full of emotion, even without playoff implications.

Iowa already has two losses, against Iowa State and Ohio State, so there’s no room for error down the stretch. But take a look at who the Hawkeyes face in the second half: at Michigan State, home for Northwestern and Michigan State, back on the road for UCLA and Maryland, and then back in the friendly confines for Nebraska. The path to 10 wins is simple enough. But are there enough quality wins there?

Barely beating Abilene Christian in the season opener and then getting bulldozed by Washington State a week later was enough to toss Texas Tech onto the backburner in the Big 12 race. But a four-game winning streak against North Texas, Arizona State, Cincinnati and Arizona has put the Red Raiders back in the mix. The biggest game the rest of the way comes at Iowa State in early November.

That Oregon keeps winning is great news for Boise State, which played the Ducks very tight in a 37-34 non-conference loss. But the Broncos’ hot start is also good news for UNLV, which plays host to the matchup on Oct. 25 and could vault the Rebels back into the Group of Five driver’s seat with a win. The loss of quarterback Matt Sluka has only seemed to make UNLV more potent on offense.