How BCS rankings would shape the College Football Playoff bracket in Week 10

The first College Football Playoff rankings for the newly expanded 12-team format will be unveiled Tuesday. While the selection process will largely mirror that of the committee that determined the four-team field over the past decade, this season features more opportunities for teams to qualify. Each of the champions from the Power Four conferences, along with the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, will receive an automatic berth in the playoff. The other seven spots are at-large bids.

To remove subjectivity from the equation, let's see how the former postseason system views the best teams in the nation up to this point of the 2024 season.

The first simulated BCS rankings from BCSKnowHow.com ahead of Week 10 used the former formula, which combined the use of polls and computer selection methods to determine college football's national championship game teams from 1999-2013. That model has accurately predicted the final four in six of the past seven seasons and is an accurate indicator on how teams should be properly slotted from a power rankings standpoint.

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Below is a closer look at how the simulated BCS rankings would format the College Football Playoff in Week 10:

Penn State would actually rank No. 2 in the BCS standings, but as the assumed second-place finisher in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions would drop down to the No. 5 seed in the hypothetical College Football Playoff. Penn State has an opportunity to solidify itself as a legitimate top contender in the Big Ten title race when it hosts Ohio State on Saturday in Happy Valley.

Boise State is widely considered the top threat to earn the automatic bid as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion in the expanded playoff field. Led by Heisman Trophy hopeful and standout running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos face just one more opponent with a winning record entering Week 10.

Ohio State faces a slim margin for error as it looks to reach the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time since 2020. The Buckeyes are one of three teams from the conference projected to qualify for the College Football Playoff based on simulated BCS rankings.

Texas A&M sits alone at the top of the SEC standings as the only team without a conference loss. However, the BCS model ranks the Aggies one spot lower than their current position in the AP Top 25. If Texas A&M can survive a hostile environment on the road at South Carolina in Week 10, the path to the College Football Playoff becomes clear.

An old Big 12 showdown in the first round of the newly expanded College Football Playoff? That is how the current simulated BCS model sees it with former Big 12 member Texas hosting Iowa State in Austin. The Longhorns seemed like the lone elite team in college football just a few weeks ago before suffering their first loss at home to Georgia — a defeat that could prove costly in their pursuit of the SEC Championship Game.

The Cyclones are one of two remaining undefeated teams in the Big 12 and should continue to hold a zero in the loss column before a massive rivalry showdown with Kansas State at the end of the regular season.

The simulated BCS model grants two more at-large bids to Tennessee and Notre Dame, setting up a first-round clash in Knoxville. The SEC Championship Game hopes for the Volunteers took a hit with a Week 6 loss to Arkansas, but their résumé improved with a win over Alabama two weeks later. A road victory against Georgia in mid-November could put Tennessee back in contention for the conference title.

Notre Dame, despite an early-season loss to Northern Illinois that worsens as the Huskies hover at .500, remains strong in the rankings. The signature win over Texas A&M by the Fighting Irish is likely boosting their standing in the BCS formula.

Nobody expected BYU to be undefeated heading into November. The Cougars continue to prove they are a legitimate threat in the Big 12 and could lock up a spot in the conference title game soon. BYU silenced a lot of doubters last weekend when it went on the road and won convincingly at UCF despite being underdogs. Ninth-year coach Kalani Sitake has the Cougars off to their best start (8-0) since winning their first nine games of the 2020 season. The combined conference record of the final four teams on the BYU schedule is 6-13 (.315).

The simulated BCS model views Miami as the top team in the ACC by a wide margin. The Hurricanes are one of eight remaining undefeated teams in the FBS and have a strong opportunity to reach the ACC Championship Game where they could collide with Clemson, Pittsburgh or SMU — all three of which have yet to suffer a conference loss. Three-consecutive, one-possession wins from late September to mid-October raised concerns about Miami, but the offense continues to be a serious weapon with transfer quarterback and Heisman Trophy contender Cam Ward in command.

Georgia showed it is still the top dog in the SEC after going on the road and handling then-No. 1 Texas in Week 8. The Bulldogs looked much like the dominant second-half team that almost defeated Alabama in late September. A critical three-game stretch awaits coach Kirby Smart and Georgia where it could lock up another trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game if it can avoid any missteps against Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Bulldogs have yet to hit their peak with quarterback Carson Beck still trying to find his groove this season.

Oregon has shown no signs of a letdown since its impressive win against Ohio State in Week 7. Instead, the Ducks stepped on the throttle, securing two additional Big Ten victories by a combined score of 73-9. Dan Lanning has Oregon firing on all cylinders following some early concerns in September that left questions about their consistency. If the Ducks can go on the road and handle reigning national champion Michigan, then they are just three wins away from their first undefeated regular season since 2010 when it reached the BCS National Championship Game.